Supply Chain Resilience starts with better forecasting

Supply Chain Resilience starts with better forecasting

At Quyntess, we learned early on that forecast collaboration is the foundation of supply chain resilience. That’s why our Forecast Collaboration Network (FCN) was the second app we deployed after Order Collaboration.

The reason is simple: many of our customers are extending their Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) or Integrated Business Planning (IBP) processes to include their suppliers. This way, the upstream supply chain can follow the pace of their business plans more closely.

From data sharing to real collaboration

In its first version, the FCN app was fairly straightforward. It shared forecast data on an item-by-item basis with demand spread over a timeline. Suppliers were expected to integrate this data into their own S&OP processes and then cascade it further downstream.

To support this, we added features that highlighted changes compared to the previous forecast version. This already went further than what many buyers, and certainly most competitors offered. Traditionally, suppliers simply receive the latest version of a forecast without any indication of what has changed. It’s a bit like playing a “spot the difference” puzzle without knowing how many differences to look for.

But even with these improvements, one problem remained: forecasts themselves became increasingly volatile.

Forecast Volatility in the Wake of Covid-19

Since Covid-19, we have observed a systematic increase of 30% or more in forecast deviations. This raised a fundamental question: is sharing raw forecast data enough?

In many cases, suppliers do not have the time or resources to run deep assessments on customer data. Large suppliers may afford to do so, but most smaller ones simply import the forecast into their own planning. This practice, however, creates the well-known bullwhip effect, where minor changes in demand ripple through the supply chain, causing major swings in production, inventory, and fulfillment. It was clear to us that it was time to change the paradigm.

Shifting the Forecast Collaboration Paradigm

The new generation of the FCN app introduces a very different approach: brutal transparency combined with actionable analytics.

Instead of leaving suppliers to decipher what has changed, the app now:

• Dissects the forecast and plots variability over time.

• Provides clear graphical insights into fluctuations.

• Highlights standard deviation and forecast variability, enabling suppliers to calculate optimal safety stocks.

At a glance, suppliers can now understand the impact of a new forecast on their plans. Rather than amplifying volatility, they can dampen fluctuations and make more informed planning decisions.

Transparency That Builds Resilience

At first, buyers may be uncomfortable with this level of transparency. After all, it exposes the inherent fluctuations in their plans. But in a mature supply chain relationship, this is a strength rather than a weakness.

By lifting the blindfold for suppliers, the new FCN app helps them deliver:

• More predictable lead times

• Fewer stock-outs

• Fewer disruptions to customer fulfillment

The result is a more resilient supply chain, one that can withstand shocks and continue delivering reliably. In fact, our data shows that this approach can improve supply chain resilience by about 30%.

Conclusion

Better forecasting is not just about sharing numbers, it’s about creating clarity, transparency, and collaboration. By shifting the paradigm from raw data exchange to actionable analytics, Quyntess’ Forecast Collaboration Network empowers suppliers and buyers alike to strengthen their supply chains, reduce volatility, and deliver more predictably.

In today’s uncertain world, that’s what real resilience looks like.